Proof
Verified analyses.The record, misses included.
Anyone can look right after the fact. The discipline is deciding before: kick-off freezes each claim, the final score judges it, and the record stays on display — the disproved at the same rank as the confirmed.
Frozen at kick-off
The number you saw before the match is the number that gets judged. Nothing is rewritten after the fact; live probabilities are computed separately and labelled as such.
Judged by the score
Each published analysis is re-read against the final score and marked confirmed or disproved. A disproved analysis keeps the probability it carried — same place, same detail.
The record feeds back
The verified record then governs the product: fragile leagues flagged and capped, disproved markets withdrawn, daily proposals weighted toward where announcements have held.
Why show the misses?
Because trust does not come from being right every time — it comes from being checkable every time. A record you can audit is worth more than a promise you cannot.
The record itself is in the app.Open it — misses included.
Next: Model Health · data quality